Betting on JDST Overnight For Trump Speech

A perfect $JDST moment. Markets are down ahead of a big trump speech tonight. BUT, they are down because retailers are down. And Trump’s plan is seen as positive for the markets. I got half my portfolio in at $16.26. Tomorrow morning, money will flow out of gold and into defense and whatever kind of infrastructure he mentions. #jdsttothemoon

 

UPDATE: Opened up almost 9%. One of my all-time best single trades. This did almost 15.2% growth in 24 hours.

A Conversation and a Pivot

While driving Uber, I recently gave a man a ride to his hotel from a business dinner.

He told me he was an investment banker visiting from Chicago and asked if I had any investments.

I told him about my strategy of trading Gold ETFs on volatility and asked for input on it.

He said it sounded like a great idea, if I stick to metrics like RSI as I sometimes do, and further suggested I could diversify by looking for buying opportunities in other commodities as well.

To that end, I created stocks.cjtrowbridge.com which shows six different groups of ETFs with both bull and bear options along with their current RSI and some automated analysis to find which one might be the best buying opportunity on a given day.

I am  working on expanding this tool to offer signups for automated daily emails. Stay tuned and let me know what you think!

Trade: RLYP ($20.39 => $23.39 / $18.89)

For my first real trade, I have decided to buy shares of Relypsa. This stock has recently been on a run after news of receiving FDA approval for a new drug with a $1b+ market. Nasdaq and Yahoo are reporting that analysts have set an average price target of $32, while the stock is currently trading at $20.

In the past, I have been betting on half the average price target, assuming that target is within the 12 month range.

To be extra safe, I will halve that strategy and bet on a quarter of the price target, or +3/-$1.5 from where I get in in the morning.

Hypothetical Stock Picks: Apple ($104.50)

Recently, lots of companies have been investing in ride-sharing services in order to glean understanding and experience in an industry that will become a big part of the value-proposition for self-driving cars.

Apple, too, has now invested $1b in a Chinese ride-sharing service. Apple has long been rumored to be producing a self-driving car. And this would give them valuable insight into an industry in which they hope to become a major player.

Also noteworthy is Warren Buffett’s recent, sizable investment in Apple. Analysts credit his interest in their P-E ratio, current buyback program, and high dividends.

Nasdaq reports a consensus 12 month price target of $120.

The stock is currently trading at $95, a 26% projected increase.

I will bet +10/-5%

Hypothetical Stock Picks: Amazon ($737)

Amazon is starting to introduce their own versions of more products. These “Amazon Basics” are everything from electronics to office supplies, home goods and groceries. These new products are lower-cost and higher profit than their other offerings, and signal a paradigm shift for Amazon.

They took over the world of online retail by selling other people’s products. And now that the world is theirs, they want to sell their own cheaper alternatives to other people’s products.

The vast majority of analysts rate amazon a “Strong Buy” according to reporting from Nasdaq, with an average price target of $792, well within its 12-month range. The stock is currently trading at $702, a 12% projected gain.

I will bet +5/-2.5%.

Hypothetical Stock Picks: Alphabet ($780)

Normally, Alphabet would be a slow-mover, though a safe bet. But unique circumstances in the next few months which make this a good buy now for faster growth.

Nasdaq reports that 34/35 analysts are currently bullish on Alphabet. Research shows that Alphabet now has more staff devoted to developing their VR division than Facebook and HTC combined, even with Facebook’s expensive acquisition of Oculus. Alphabet’s VR division is also growing much more quickly than the competition. For these reasons, analysts accurately predicted a big announcement from Google at I/O about a consolidated VR platform. Google also announced several other compelling products which affirm analysts average price target of $914. The stock is currently trading at $709, a 28% average predicted increase.

I will bet +10/-5%

Update on My Hypothetical Portfolio: Up 6.3% YTD

I have been Blogging about hypothetical trades and their timing in order to establish a baseline and a reasonable performance expectation before spending any actual money.

Year to date, I am up 6.3%.

 

Hypothetical Stock Picks: Nvidia

Nvidia this week announced a new line of graphics cards which greatly reduces cost while dramatically increasing performance, this puts them firmly on the leading edge of this expensive, niche market.

Consumer sentiment on this new product line has been very favorable. , but there is some danger that their competitor AMD could release a similar product in the near future, but their products typically target a more bargain-minded audience, and each brand has a very loyal following. I feel confident that Nvidia’s line will be the strong leader in this coming generation of performance graphics cards.

Nvidia is announcing earnings this Thursday, and I feel very confident that their announcement will include strong projections for the coming year.

The stock is currently trading at $35; it’s lowest level since late March. It’s range within that time extends up about 6% to $37.

I predict that on the earnings announcement Thursday night, the stock will go up at least halfway through that recent range of 6%. I am currently leaning towards betting +3%, -1.5%.

 

Update 2016-05-10 10:00am:

My bet paid off, and I closed the deal up 3%!

Hypothetical Stock Picks: Disney Earnings After Record Breaking Quarter

This one is an experiment with a different strategy, according to my research, 60% of analysts are currently bullish on Disney. Their upcoming earnings report will cover the release of several blockbusters like Star Wars and Captain America, but also the worrying performance of ESPN.

A huge amount of coverage suggests that Star Wars in particular has had a very good return, more than covering their purchase cost for the franchise with the first new release. Seeing Disney’s price trend in a fairly straight line while reading this news makes me feel confident in buying now, ahead of the earnings report Tuesday.

I will say buy now and set a goal of +5/-2.5% from $105.

This pick connotes a potential strategy shift; incorporating metrics about average analyst sentiment ahead of earnings reports. Let’s see how it goes.

Update 2016-05-09:

Yesterday, reports broke that Disney’s new blockbuster Captain America now has the fourth highest open ever, giving them a second major recent win. I am confident I made the right choice with this one!

Update 2016-05-11:

Earnings came in at 2.9% below expectations which sent the stock down 5.6%. The weakness was exactly as predicted, ESPN. As well as to a lesser degree, their parks and resorts. The strength was as expected, Star Wars and other movies.

This makes me feel like the stock is undervalued. I’ll bet again on +3/-1.5% from $101.84

Update 2016-05-16:

Early this morning, the stop loss was met again, reiterating what everyone has been saying; that you should never double down on a bad trade. :[ at least this time it was only 1.5%