Hypothetical Stock Picks: Disney Earnings After Record Breaking Quarter

May 9, 2016

This one is an experiment with a different strategy, according to my research, 60% of analysts are currently bullish on Disney. Their upcoming earnings report will cover the release of several blockbusters like Star Wars and Captain America, but also the worrying performance of ESPN. A huge amount of coverage suggests that Star Wars in particular has had a very good return, more than covering their purchase cost for the franchise with the first new release. Seeing Disney’s price trend in a fairly straight line while reading this news makes me feel confident in buying now, ahead of the earnings report Tuesday. I will say buy now and set a goal of +5/-2.5% from $105. This pick connotes a potential strategy shift; incorporating metrics about average analyst sentiment ahead of earnings reports. Let’s see how it goes. Update 2016-05-09:Yesterday, reports broke that Disney’s new blockbuster Captain America now has the fourth highest open ever, giving them a second major recent win. I am confident I made the right choice with this one! Update 2016-05-11:Earnings came in at 2.9% below expectations which sent the stock down 5.6%. The weakness was exactly as predicted, ESPN. As well as to a lesser degree, their parks and resorts. The strength was as expected, Star Wars and other movies. This makes me feel like the stock is undervalued. I’ll bet again on +3/-1.5% from $101.84 Update 2016-05-16:Early this morning, the stop loss was met again, reiterating what everyone has been saying; that you should never double down on a bad trade. :[ at least this time it was only 1.5%